Did you guys hear there was a Ray Rice video? With all the great games coming up this week, it’s only right that we start off by addressing the Baddell scandal. I would actually let him keep his job if he legally changed his name to that. And cut his salary by 1000x. Personally, I want to live in a police state soon where we film everything, so we’d have video of Jonathan Martin getting punked at the lunch tables, Aldon Smith asleep at the wheel, and I think we’d all love to know how much molly Wes Welker took, and in what fashion he took it in. I’m counting on you Google, don’t let me down.
Back to football, overreaction Week 1 is complete, and I’m not taking too much into the games where turnovers played a huge part, because I don’t want to be sad about the Bears’ season just yet. Although Kap seems ready to tuck away my hopes for the season in one of his 50,000 shoe boxes. Still, it’s tough to know exactly where teams stand. Are the Vikings actually good on defense? Or was the Shaun Hill to Brian Quick connection not finely tuned yet? Is Jake Locker not stupid? Or is Kansas City’s defense a complete mess? Are the Dolphins for real? Is RGIII really not going to run? Is Josh McCown…a fraud? Did Matt Stafford stop drinking beer and eating hot dong? I guess we’ll have to wait and see…
Now to Week 2, I am hurting. I am having a gambling identity crisis. I go from having the Ravens as my favorite Week 1 bet, losing it, and then bailing on them to take the Steelers on Thursday. Needless to say, I was crushed. I am crushed. Let’s stay positive no matter how many mocking texts I am bombarded with.
Lions +2.5 @ Panthers
I missed on the Panthers, but they still managed to let Tampa Bay make it a game with a +3 turnover differential. They joined Buffalo, Tennessee, and San Fran as the teams with 3 or more turnovers, all winners. Turnovers make or break bets. With Detroits offensive line banged up, playing Carolina on the road is a completely different test than playing the Giants at home. If they can protect Stafford, the Lions should be able to easily win this game, I just have no idea if they’ll be able to.
Falcons +5 @ Bengals
I was hoping after the Falcons beat the Saints at home, where Matt Ryan is exceptional, they would be 3 point dogs here. Maybe it will be bet down, but the Falcons are a different team on the road, with Matt Ryan leading them to 24-24 versus 37-10 at home. Those records were back when the Falcons were an elite team, which I no longer think they are, partly due to drafting and partly due to injuries. Jake Matthews is out, so they are starting Gabe Carimi at LT, a player so bad he couldn’t stay on the offensive line challenged Bears and Bucs.
Dolphins -1 @ Bills
I like the under 42.5 for this game. The Dolphins defense looked well rounded and I just think both teams will play conservaitve, particularly the Bills who will be fine running the ball and punting, as long as they avoid turnovers. As a little bit of a hedge, I like the Dolphins -1, because their new offense looks to be clicking so far, especially their offensive line which looks night and day better, led by Brandon Albert who shut out Chandler Jones last week.
Rams +6 @ Bucs
I will not jump ship on the Bucs like I did the Ravens. I won’t overreact to the Josh McCown looking like…Josh McCown. I still have faith in this defense, especially when they are playing possibly the worst team in the NFl.
Jaguars +6 @ Redskins
The Jaguars defense should be good enough to keep it close against an immobile RGIII, and the Jag’s offense might even be able to do enough to pull an upset here. I haven’t seen enough out of Gruden’s offense and whether RGIII can use the weapons he has, which means they will probably put up 40 points.
The Cowboys front seven actually didn’t look terrible, but unfortunately everyone else did, mostly Romo, who played about as bad a game as I’ve ever seen him play. It’s possible that his back is bothering him, but I’m going to bet on a bounce back game for this offense. The Titans are good, but shutting down the Chiefs when they decide not to give the ball to Jamaal Charles isn’t exactly impressive.
Cardinals -2 @ Giants
This has all the makings of an overreaction trap game, but it’s so hard to bet on this Giants offense that has looked absolutely terrible. Cardinals are on a short week, flying east for the early Sunday game, and I still can’t bet against them. Giants lack of a pass rush will hurt them against Palmer, who is still okay as long as he doesn’t have to move much. Love the under 42.5.
Patriots -6 @ Vikings
Hey AP, just because the Bible said it’s okay, and just because you use the term “whoopin” doesn’t change the fact that you beat your child, who is FOUR FUCKING YEARS OLD. Thank God I’m not in the group that finds this okay or normal. His son’s statement to the police makes it very clear that his son is completely terrified of him, so well done, sir. Welcome to 2014 AP, enjoy getting a 4-6 game suspension soon.
Saints -6.5 @ Browns
I don’t know what to make of this Browns offense, but I don’t like the Saints to blow teams out on the road, so I’ll take the points. Now that I’ve typed that out, I fully expect the Saints to blow them out on the road.
Seahawks -6 @ Chargers
I just want to root against Richard Sherman, so hopefully Rivers wasn’t lying when he said he wouldn’t avoid his side of the field.
Texans -2.5 @ Raiders
Okay, made I’ll take back what I said about J.J. Watt and any non-QB not being worth the type of money he got, because it sounds like he almost single handedly destroyed the Redskins last week. Carr is going to have trouble with his throwing motion when Watt is elbow deep in his ass, and as long as the Texans are healthy on offense they should be able to cover this spread.
Jets +8 @ Packers
I’ve officially had enough of the Aaron Rodgers commercials. Just because he’s been playing straight his entire life doesn’t mean he can act on camera. I don’t care if he’s dating the insanely hot Olivia Munn, I will never accept the fact that Rodger isn’t a virgin. The only sex he’ll be having on Sunday is going to be from the punishing that he dishes out to the Jets secondary, which is made worse by their lack of a pass rush. Will the Packers defense step up in order to cover the 8 points? Geno Smith thinks so. Good team to tease down to -2.
Chiefs +12.5 @ Broncos
Remember how bad Alex Smith was, and then when Harbaugh came in and everyone credited his new success to the coach, when really it was the fact that they drafted a bunch of stud linemen? Well, Smith is back to having a shitty offensive line, and I know it’s a lot of points, but Peyton should pick apart this secondary. Unless Charles goes nuts, I see this game getting ugly.
Bears +7 @ Niners
BREAKING NEWS! I just got the exclusive transcript from a call between Roger Goodell and Jay Cutler that took place yesterday:
Jay: Rodge, I heard people are calling on you to resign.
Roger: Hey Jay, guess what?
Roger: I don’t fuckin’ care. Saw your 4th quarter interception. It was pretty brutal.
Jay: I don’t fuckin’ care.
Roger: I don’t care.
Jay: Don’t care.
It went on like this, for 10 minutes.
Eagles +3 @ Colts
I was impressed how the Colts offensive line stood up against the Broncos on the road, and if they continue to play like that, while giving snaps to Ahman Bradshaw over Trent Richardson, this offense could really be lethal. The Nick Foles regression season is in full swing, so while I don’t love this bet…I have to take a side.